Polymarket 政治赔率

Polymarket 上全部政治类预测市场汇总于一张表：总统与国会选举、党内提名、内阁人选、立法与弹劾概率——价格由真金白银下注的交易者决定。

因为判断错误要自己承担亏损，这类赔率在历史上比民调平均值更贴近最终结果，而且往往在新闻出现后几分钟内就有反应，而不是几天。

Polymarket 政治赔率

• Fed Decision in July? — No change 77% · $11.8M volume
• Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? — Abiy Ahmed 95% · $1.6M volume
• Elon Musk # tweets July 21 - July 28, 2026? — 260-279 50% · $685K volume
• Presidential Election Winner 2028 — JD Vance 20% · $462K volume
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · $344K volume
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...? — August 31 13% · $288K volume
• Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Gavin Newsom 19% · $273K volume
• Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Gadi Eizenkot 52% · $233K volume
• Elon Musk # tweets July 24 - July 31, 2026? — 220-239 26% · $225K volume
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — 22% · $222K volume
• Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 49% · $211K volume
• Brazil Presidential Election — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 64% · $164K volume
• Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? — United Russia (ER) 57% · $156K volume
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? — December 31 85% · $152K volume
• Israel closes its airspace by...? — August 31 26% · $141K volume
• Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? — Somaliland 24% · $141K volume
• Venezuela leader end of 2026? — Nicolás Maduro 82% · $124K volume
• Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...? — July 31 100% · $120K volume
• Next French Presidential Election — Marine Le Pen 32% · $104K volume
• Elon Musk # tweets July 27 - July 29, 2026? — 40-64 61% · $104K volume
• Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? — August 31 54% · $102K volume
• Netanyahu out by...? — December 31 37% · $102K volume
• Fed Decision in September? — 25 bps increase 56% · $90K volume
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — December 31 24% · $84K volume
• Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? — 32% · $83K volume

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