How do Polymarket Politics odds work?

Each outcome trades as a share priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and the price is the market's implied probability. A share at 40¢ means traders collectively give that outcome a 40% chance; if it happens, the share pays $1.00.

Are Polymarket Politics odds accurate?

They reflect real money at risk rather than opinion, which historically makes them well calibrated — but they are a live forecast, not a guarantee, and thin markets can be moved by a single large trader. Check the volume column before trusting a price.

How often do these odds update?

Continuously. Prices come straight from Polymarket's public API and refresh as trades happen, with roughly 30 seconds of edge caching.

Polymarket Politics Odds

Every political prediction market on Polymarket in one table: presidential and congressional races, party nominations, cabinet appointments, legislation and impeachment odds — priced by traders putting real money behind their forecasts.

A price of 62¢ means the market gives that outcome roughly a 62% chance. Because traders lose money when they are wrong, these odds have historically tracked results more closely than polling averages, and they move within minutes of breaking news rather than days.

Polymarket Politics Odds

Fed Decision in July? — No change 74% · $11.6M volume
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? — Abiy Ahmed 95% · $1.6M volume
Elon Musk # tweets July 21 - July 28, 2026? — 260-279 47% · $686K volume
Presidential Election Winner 2028 — JD Vance 20% · $461K volume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · $358K volume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...? — August 31 13% · $303K volume
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Gavin Newsom 19% · $271K volume
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Gadi Eizenkot 52% · $235K volume
Elon Musk # tweets July 24 - July 31, 2026? — 220-239 26% · $222K volume
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — 22% · $222K volume
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 49% · $211K volume
Brazil Presidential Election — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 64% · $164K volume
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? — United Russia (ER) 57% · $156K volume
Venezuela leader end of 2026? — Nicolás Maduro 82% · $154K volume
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? — December 31 85% · $149K volume
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? — Somaliland 24% · $149K volume
Israel closes its airspace by...? — August 31 26% · $146K volume
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...? — July 31 100% · $137K volume
Elon Musk # tweets July 27 - July 29, 2026? — 40-64 59% · $103K volume
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? — August 31 54% · $101K volume
Netanyahu out by...? — December 31 34% · $98K volume
Next French Presidential Election — Marine Le Pen 32% · $94K volume
Fed Decision in September? — 25 bps increase 56% · $89K volume
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — December 31 24% · $85K volume
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? — 32% · $83K volume

Browse every Polymarket market →

Frequently Asked Questions

How do Polymarket Politics odds work?: Each outcome trades as a share priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and the price is the market's implied probability. A share at 40¢ means traders collectively give that outcome a 40% chance; if it happens, the share pays $1.00.
Are Polymarket Politics odds accurate?: They reflect real money at risk rather than opinion, which historically makes them well calibrated — but they are a live forecast, not a guarantee, and thin markets can be moved by a single large trader. Check the volume column before trusting a price.
How often do these odds update?: Continuously. Prices come straight from Polymarket's public API and refresh as trades happen, with roughly 30 seconds of edge caching.

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