Weather markets on Polymarket: temperature thresholds and records, hurricane formation and landfall, snowfall totals and seasonal climate milestones.
These resolve against official meteorological data, so they are among the cleanest markets on the platform — no interpretation, just a number from NOAA or an equivalent source.
Each outcome trades as a share priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and the price is the market's implied probability. A share at 40¢ means traders collectively give that outcome a 40% chance; if it happens, the share pays $1.00.
Are Polymarket Weather odds accurate?
They reflect real money at risk rather than opinion, which historically makes them well calibrated — but they are a live forecast, not a guarantee, and thin markets can be moved by a single large trader. Check the volume column before trusting a price.
How often do these odds update?
Continuously. Prices come straight from Polymarket's public API and refresh as trades happen, with roughly 30 seconds of edge caching.