How do Polymarket Ukraine odds work?

Each outcome trades as a share priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and the price is the market's implied probability. A share at 40¢ means traders collectively give that outcome a 40% chance; if it happens, the share pays $1.00.

Are Polymarket Ukraine odds accurate?

They reflect real money at risk rather than opinion, which historically makes them well calibrated — but they are a live forecast, not a guarantee, and thin markets can be moved by a single large trader. Check the volume column before trusting a price.

How often do these odds update?

Continuously. Prices come straight from Polymarket's public API and refresh as trades happen, with roughly 30 seconds of edge caching.

Ukraine Prediction Markets

Markets on the war in Ukraine: ceasefire and peace-deal odds, territorial control, foreign aid packages, sanctions and leadership questions.

These markets have repeatedly priced in negotiation breakthroughs and stalls days before they were confirmed publicly.

Ukraine Prediction Markets

Putin out as President of Russia by...? — June 30, 2027 10% · $135K volume
NATO x Russia military clash by...? — December 31 17% · $70K volume
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? — December 31 78% · $55K volume
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? — December 31, 2027 71% · $45K volume
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...? — December 31 16% · $20K volume
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? — 6% · $17K volume
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? — December 31, 2027 53% · $16K volume
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? — No meeting before 2027 93% · $9K volume
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? — China 77% · $8K volume
Will Russia target Kyiv on...? — October 1 100% · $6K volume
Trump meets with Putin by...? — December 31 82% · $5K volume
Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place? — UAE 58% · $5K volume
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? — 9% · $4K volume
Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027? — 2% · $4K volume
Russia coup attempt by...? — December 31, 2027 18% · $2K volume
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...? — December 31 10% · $2K volume
Will Ukraine target Moscow on...? — October 4 100% · $2K volume
Russia military action against EU country by...? — December 31, 2027 23% · $2K volume
Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next? — No meeting by December 31, 2027 79% · $2K volume
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...? — December 31, 2027 30% · $1K volume
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? — 7% · $850 volume
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026? — 9% · $686 volume
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by...? — December 31, 2027 25% · $625 volume
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31? — 1% · $509 volume
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? — 3% · $334 volume

Browse every Polymarket market →

Frequently Asked Questions

How do Polymarket Ukraine odds work?: Each outcome trades as a share priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and the price is the market's implied probability. A share at 40¢ means traders collectively give that outcome a 40% chance; if it happens, the share pays $1.00.
Are Polymarket Ukraine odds accurate?: They reflect real money at risk rather than opinion, which historically makes them well calibrated — but they are a live forecast, not a guarantee, and thin markets can be moved by a single large trader. Check the volume column before trusting a price.
How often do these odds update?: Continuously. Prices come straight from Polymarket's public API and refresh as trades happen, with roughly 30 seconds of edge caching.

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