Earnings markets on Polymarket: whether a company beats consensus, revenue and EPS thresholds, and guidance outcomes, quarter by quarter.
Useful as a second opinion on options-implied moves — the market here states a probability outright instead of leaving you to derive it from a straddle.
Each outcome trades as a share priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and the price is the market's implied probability. A share at 40¢ means traders collectively give that outcome a 40% chance; if it happens, the share pays $1.00.
Are Polymarket Earnings odds accurate?
They reflect real money at risk rather than opinion, which historically makes them well calibrated — but they are a live forecast, not a guarantee, and thin markets can be moved by a single large trader. Check the volume column before trusting a price.
How often do these odds update?
Continuously. Prices come straight from Polymarket's public API and refresh as trades happen, with roughly 30 seconds of edge caching.