As of today the market prices Will the US confirm that aliens exist by... at 6% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...??
The market currently prices this at 6% (6¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31 is the market favorite at 6%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $63.6M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...??
$63.6M has been traded on this market in total, including $7K in the last 24 hours, with $824K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Where can I bet on Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.