Markets covering the Middle East: ceasefire and hostage agreements, military action, sanctions, nuclear negotiations and leadership changes.
In fast-moving conflicts these prices are often the earliest quantified signal available — they move on the first credible report rather than waiting for official confirmation.
Each outcome trades as a share priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and the price is the market's implied probability. A share at 40¢ means traders collectively give that outcome a 40% chance; if it happens, the share pays $1.00.
Are Polymarket Middle East odds accurate?
They reflect real money at risk rather than opinion, which historically makes them well calibrated — but they are a live forecast, not a guarantee, and thin markets can be moved by a single large trader. Check the volume column before trusting a price.
How often do these odds update?
Continuously. Prices come straight from Polymarket's public API and refresh as trades happen, with roughly 30 seconds of edge caching.