Polymarket 的US Election赔率是怎么运作的？

每个结果都是一份在 1 至 99 美分之间交易的份额，价格即隐含概率。40 美分意味着交易者整体认为该结果有 40% 的可能；一旦发生，份额按 1.00 美元支付。

Polymarket 的US Election赔率准确吗？

它们反映的是真实承担风险的资金而非观点，历史上校准度很高。但这仍是动态预测而非保证，成交清淡的市场可能被单个大户推动——参考价格前请先看成交量一栏。

这些赔率多久更新一次？

持续更新。价格直接来自 Polymarket 公开 API，随成交实时刷新，缓存约 30 秒。

美国总统选举赔率

美国大选相关市场：两党提名、大选对决、摇摆州归属、选举人票总数与普选票差距。

这些正是上一轮周期吸引数十亿美元成交量的市场，并且在多个州比电视台更早给出正确判断。

美国总统选举赔率

Presidential Election Winner 2028 — JD Vance 20% · $462K volume
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Gavin Newsom 19% · $273K volume
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 49% · $211K volume
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner — Byron Donalds 97% · $33K volume
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Abdul El-Sayed 72% · $30K volume
FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner — Bernard Taylor 74% · $17K volume
MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner — Wesley Bell 63% · $17K volume
AL-05 House Election Winner — Republican Party 92% · $10K volume
TN-04 House Election Winner — Republican Party 92% · $9K volume
KS-04 House Election Winner — Republican Party 93% · $9K volume
California Governor Election Winner — Xavier Becerra 93% · $8K volume
WI-07 House Election Winner — Republican Party 88% · $8K volume
James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary? — Fishback 10–15% 37% · $7K volume
Which party will win the House in 2026? — Democratic Party 86% · $7K volume
NJ-10 House Election Winner — Democratic Party 96% · $7K volume
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms — Democrats Sweep 44% · $6K volume
OH-05 House Election Winner — Republican Party 94% · $6K volume
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? — Democratic 59% · $6K volume
CA-21 House Election Winner — Democratic Party 90% · $6K volume
CA-45 House Election Winner — Democratic Party 84% · $6K volume
KY-01 House Election Winner — Republican Party 95% · $6K volume
FL-09 Republican Primary Winner — Thomas Chalifoux 44% · $6K volume
OH-12 House Election Winner — Republican Party 93% · $5K volume
FL-23 House Election Winner — Democratic Party 92% · $5K volume
CA-49 House Election Winner — Democratic Party 94% · $5K volume

浏览全部 Polymarket 市场 →

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket 的US Election赔率是怎么运作的？: 每个结果都是一份在 1 至 99 美分之间交易的份额，价格即隐含概率。40 美分意味着交易者整体认为该结果有 40% 的可能；一旦发生，份额按 1.00 美元支付。
Polymarket 的US Election赔率准确吗？: 它们反映的是真实承担风险的资金而非观点，历史上校准度很高。但这仍是动态预测而非保证，成交清淡的市场可能被单个大户推动——参考价格前请先看成交量一栏。
这些赔率多久更新一次？: 持续更新。价格直接来自 Polymarket 公开 API，随成交实时刷新，缓存约 30 秒。

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