Polymarket 选举赔率

按成交量排序的全球选举市场：美国总统与中期选举、党内初选、欧洲与亚洲的议会选举，以及各党派领导人之争。

每位候选人都作为独立份额在 1 至 99 美分之间交易，因此这张表本身就是一份实时的概率排名。

Polymarket 选举赔率

• Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? — Abiy Ahmed 95% · $1.6M volume
• Presidential Election Winner 2028 — JD Vance 20% · $462K volume
• Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Gavin Newsom 19% · $273K volume
• Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Gadi Eizenkot 52% · $233K volume
• Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 49% · $211K volume
• Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? — United Russia (ER) 57% · $156K volume
• Next French Presidential Election — Marine Le Pen 32% · $101K volume
• Clacton by-election Winner — Nigel Farage 96% · $62K volume
• Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner — Byron Donalds 97% · $33K volume
• Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Abdul El-Sayed 72% · $30K volume
• 2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner — BN 74% · $23K volume
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? — 34% · $20K volume
• France United Left Primary Winner — Canceled 94% · $20K volume
• Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? — 41% · $19K volume
• FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner — Bernard Taylor 74% · $17K volume
• MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner — Wesley Bell 63% · $17K volume
• Clacton by-election: 2nd place — Count Binface 79% · $16K volume
• Clacton by-election: Turnout — 20k-30k 49% · $15K volume
• Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner — Bev Craig 100% · $15K volume
• Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote % — Binface 10–20% 47% · $15K volume
• Russia Parliamentary Election Winner — United Russia (ER) 95% · $14K volume
• Trump out as President before 2027? — 8% · $13K volume
• Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner — Cleitinho Azevedo 39% · $11K volume
• Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place — Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · $10K volume
• AL-05 House Election Winner — Republican Party 92% · $10K volume

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