As of today the market prices Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 at 22% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??
The market currently prices this at 22% (22¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? is the market favorite at 22%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $48.8M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??
$48.8M has been traded on this market in total, including $222K in the last 24 hours, with $785K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Where can I bet on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.