比特币预测市场
Polymarket 上的全部比特币市场，从短周期涨跌合约到年底价格目标，按成交量排序。
把价格当概率读：18 美分的份额意味着市场认为该目标有 18% 的实现概率。
比特币预测市场
- What price will Bitcoin hit in July? — ↑ 65,000 100% · $1.3M volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on July 28? — 56,000 100% · $943K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down on July 28? — 7% · $111K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on July 29? — 56,000 100% · $89K volume
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? — ↓ 60,000 100% · $87K volume
- Bitcoin price on July 28? — 62,000-64,000 84% · $70K volume
- What price will Bitcoin hit July 27-August 2? — ↓ 62,000 59% · $47K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET — 1% · $20K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on July 30? — 54,000 100% · $19K volume
- What price will Bitcoin hit on July 28? — ↓ 63,000 65% · $17K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on August 1? — 54,000 100% · $16K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on July 31? — 54,000 100% · $15K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5AM ET — 1% · $10K volume
- Bitcoin all time high by ___? — December 31, 2026 6% · $10K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET · $10K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET — 34% · $7K volume
- STRC hits $100 by… — December 31 43% · $6K volume
- Bitcoin price on July 29? — 62,000-64,000 52% · $6K volume
- Bitcoin price on July 31? — 62,000-64,000 34% · $4K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on July 28, 4AM ET? — 63,400 100% · $3K volume
- Bitcoin price on August 1? — 62,000-64,000 34% · $3K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET — 50% · $2K volume
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? — 6% · $2K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on July 28, 6AM ET? — 62,800 100% · $2K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET — 50% · $2K volume
浏览全部 Polymarket 市场 →
Frequently Asked Questions
- Polymarket 的Bitcoin赔率是怎么运作的？
- 每个结果都是一份在 1 至 99 美分之间交易的份额，价格即隐含概率。40 美分意味着交易者整体认为该结果有 40% 的可能；一旦发生，份额按 1.00 美元支付。
- Polymarket 的Bitcoin赔率准确吗？
- 它们反映的是真实承担风险的资金而非观点，历史上校准度很高。但这仍是动态预测而非保证，成交清淡的市场可能被单个大户推动——参考价格前请先看成交量一栏。
- 这些赔率多久更新一次？
- 持续更新。价格直接来自 Polymarket 公开 API，随成交实时刷新，缓存约 30 秒。
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