比特币预测市场
Polymarket 上的全部比特币市场，从短周期涨跌合约到年底价格目标，按成交量排序。
把价格当概率读：18 美分的份额意味着市场认为该目标有 18% 的实现概率。
比特币预测市场
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11? — 70,000 100% · $1.4M volume
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? — ↓ 60,000 100% · $635K volume
- What price will Bitcoin hit in September? — ↑ 80,000 100% · $447K volume
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13? — ↓ 78,000 100% · $202K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 12? — 70,000 100% · $158K volume
- Bitcoin price on September 11? — 76,000-78,000 65% · $107K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down on September 11? — 71% · $72K volume
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 11? — ↑ 78,000 100% · $69K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 14? — 70,000 99% · $33K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 13? — 70,000 99% · $31K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 15? — 70,000 99% · $29K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 16? — 68,000 99% · $28K volume
- Bitcoin all time high by ___? — December 31, 2026 8% · $22K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET — 83% · $9K volume
- Bitcoin price on September 12? — 76,000-78,000 50% · $8K volume
- STRC hits $100 by… — December 31 75% · $5K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 9AM ET — 25% · $5K volume
- Bitcoin price on September 13? — 76,000-78,000 41% · $4K volume
- Bitcoin price on September 16? — 76,000-78,000 25% · $3K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 17? — 68,000 99% · $3K volume
- When will Bitcoin hit $100k? — by December 31, 2027 84% · $2K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET — 40% · $2K volume
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? — 4% · $2K volume
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? — 2% · $1K volume
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026? — 8% · $1K volume
浏览全部 Polymarket 市场 →
Frequently Asked Questions
- Polymarket 的Bitcoin赔率是怎么运作的？
- 每个结果都是一份在 1 至 99 美分之间交易的份额，价格即隐含概率。40 美分意味着交易者整体认为该结果有 40% 的可能；一旦发生，份额按 1.00 美元支付。
- Polymarket 的Bitcoin赔率准确吗？
- 它们反映的是真实承担风险的资金而非观点，历史上校准度很高。但这仍是动态预测而非保证，成交清淡的市场可能被单个大户推动——参考价格前请先看成交量一栏。
- 这些赔率多久更新一次？
- 持续更新。价格直接来自 Polymarket 公开 API，随成交实时刷新，缓存约 30 秒。
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