比特币预测市场
Polymarket 上的全部比特币市场，从短周期涨跌合约到年底价格目标，按成交量排序。
把价格当概率读：18 美分的份额意味着市场认为该目标有 18% 的实现概率。
比特币预测市场
- What price will Bitcoin hit in October? — ↑ 85,000 100% · $562K volume
- What price will Bitcoin hit on October 26? — ↑ 80,000 100% · $248K volume
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? — ↓ 60,000 100% · $238K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on October 27? — 72,000 100% · $209K volume
- Bitcoin price on October 27? — 80,000-82,000 49% · $31K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on October 28? — 74,000 99% · $30K volume
- What price will Bitcoin hit October 26-November 1? — ↓ 80,000 93% · $26K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on October 29? — 72,000 99% · $16K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET — 35% · $14K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on October 30? — 72,000 99% · $10K volume
- Bitcoin price on October 28? — 80,000-82,000 35% · $10K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on November 1? — 70,000 99% · $7K volume
- Bitcoin all time high by ___? — December 31, 2026 4% · $7K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27? — 47% · $6K volume
- Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2PM ET — 39% · $5K volume
- Bitcoin above ___ on October 31? — 70,000 99% · $4K volume
- STRC hits $100 by… — December 31 72% · $4K volume
- When will Bitcoin hit $100k? — by December 31, 2027 75% · $3K volume
- Bitcoin price on October 31? — 80,000-82,000 26% · $2K volume
- Bitcoin price on October 29? — 80,000-82,000 29% · $2K volume
- Bitcoin price on October 30? — 80,000-82,000 27% · $2K volume
- Bitcoin price on November 1? — 80,000-82,000 23% · $2K volume
- Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 — S&P 500 71% · $2K volume
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? — 3% · $1K volume
- When will Bitcoin hit $150k? — by December 31, 2027 25% · $556 volume
浏览全部 Polymarket 市场 →
Frequently Asked Questions
- Polymarket 的Bitcoin赔率是怎么运作的？
- 每个结果都是一份在 1 至 99 美分之间交易的份额，价格即隐含概率。40 美分意味着交易者整体认为该结果有 40% 的可能；一旦发生，份额按 1.00 美元支付。
- Polymarket 的Bitcoin赔率准确吗？
- 它们反映的是真实承担风险的资金而非观点，历史上校准度很高。但这仍是动态预测而非保证，成交清淡的市场可能被单个大户推动——参考价格前请先看成交量一栏。
- 这些赔率多久更新一次？
- 持续更新。价格直接来自 Polymarket 公开 API，随成交实时刷新，缓存约 30 秒。
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