US election markets on Polymarket: party nominations, the general election matchup, swing-state calls, electoral-college totals and popular-vote margins.
These are the markets that drew billions in volume during the last cycle and called several results ahead of the networks. Prices update continuously, so the ranking below is the market's current read on the race.
Each outcome trades as a share priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and the price is the market's implied probability. A share at 40¢ means traders collectively give that outcome a 40% chance; if it happens, the share pays $1.00.
Are Polymarket US Election odds accurate?
They reflect real money at risk rather than opinion, which historically makes them well calibrated — but they are a live forecast, not a guarantee, and thin markets can be moved by a single large trader. Check the volume column before trusting a price.
How often do these odds update?
Continuously. Prices come straight from Polymarket's public API and refresh as trades happen, with roughly 30 seconds of edge caching.