This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Iran Nuke before 2027??
The market currently prices this at 5% (5¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Iran Nuke before 2027?
Iran Nuke before 2027? is the market favorite at 5%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $1.2M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Iran Nuke before 2027??
$1.2M has been traded on this market in total, including $4K in the last 24 hours, with $80K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Iran Nuke before 2027? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Iran Nuke before 2027? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Where can I bet on Iran Nuke before 2027?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.