As of today the market prices Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026 at 6% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026??
The market currently prices this at 6% (6¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? is the market favorite at 6%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $4.5M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026??
$4.5M has been traded on this market in total, including $2K in the last 24 hours, with $98K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Where can I bet on Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.