Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 28 leads at 32% across 19 outcomes, with $132K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
No Next Minister by Feb 2832%32¢$57K
Yoram Cohen19%19¢$14K
Yair Golan6%6¢$2K
Talya Lankri6%6¢$8K
Avi Dichter5%5¢$2K
Itamar Ben Gvir4%4¢$7K
Gideon Sa’ar4%4¢$2K
Matan Kahana4%4¢$12K
Yoav Segalovich4%4¢$2K
Amir Ohana3%3¢$2K
Ofer Winter3%3¢$10K
Eli Cohen2%2¢$1K
Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)2%2¢$756
Yossi Cohen1%1¢$3K
Elazar Stern1%1¢$4K

4 more outcomes on the full market page.

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Next Israeli Minister of National Security??
Current odds: No Next Minister by Feb 28 32%, Yoram Cohen 19%, Yair Golan 6%, Talya Lankri 6%, Avi Dichter 5%, Itamar Ben Gvir 4%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Next Israeli Minister of National Security?
No Next Minister by Feb 28 is the market favorite at 32%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $132K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Next Israeli Minister of National Security??
$132K has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $124K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Next Israeli Minister of National Security? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Next Israeli Minister of National Security? resolve?
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial po
Where can I bet on Next Israeli Minister of National Security?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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