Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
December 31, 2027 leads at 30% across 3 outcomes, with $893K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...? odds
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...??
Current odds: December 31, 2027 30%, June 30, 2027 26%, December 31, 2026 7%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
December 31, 2027 is the market favorite at 30%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $893K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...??
$893K has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $85K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mut
Where can I bet on Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.