December 31 leads at 82% across 3 outcomes, with $10K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Speaker of the 26th Knesset is elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An individual serving as, appointed as, or deemed to be acting or temporary Speaker will not trigger a "Yes" resolution to this market. Only the successful election of the first Speaker of the 26th Knesset will result in this market's resolving to "Yes".
This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a Speaker of the 26th Knesset is successfully elected. Otherwise, this market may not resolve until its expiration time passes.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset and the Government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by...??
Current odds: December 31 82%, November 30 61%, November 13 37%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by...?
December 31 is the market favorite at 82%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $10K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by...??
$10K has been traded on this market in total, with $891 of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Speaker of the 26th Knesset is elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An individual serving as, appointed as, or deemed to be acting or temporary Speaker will not trigger a "Yes" resolution to this market. Only the successful election of the first Speaker of the 26th Knesset will result in this market's resolving to "Yes".
This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a Speaker of the 26th Knesset is successfully elected. Otherwise, this market may not resolve until its expiration time passes.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset and the Gove
Where can I bet on Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.