Mississippi leads at 100% across 20 outcomes, with $216K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Which Senate races will be within 5%??
Current odds: Mississippi 100%, Iowa 99%, Alaska 99%, Florida (Special) 99%, South Carolina 99%, Louisiana 99%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Mississippi is the market favorite at 100%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $216K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Which Senate races will be within 5%??
$216K has been traded on this market in total, including $936 in the last 24 hours, with $179K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Which Senate races will be within 5%? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Which Senate races will be within 5%? resolve?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round e
Where can I bet on Which Senate races will be within 5%?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.