Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
ACT New Zealand leads at 76% across 6 outcomes, with $13K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand? odds
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand??
Current odds: ACT New Zealand 76%, National Party 72%, New Zealand First Party 70%, Labour Party 22%, Green Party 16%, Te Pāti Māori 16%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
ACT New Zealand is the market favorite at 76%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $13K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand??
$13K has been traded on this market in total, including $6K in the last 24 hours, with $3K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 8, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand? resolve?
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister.
Where can I bet on Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.