This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President??
Current odds: Other 50%, Ron DeSantis 28%, Rand Paul 23%, J.D. Vance 20%, Ted Cruz 17%, Donald Trump 10%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?
Other is the market favorite at 50%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $7K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President??
$7K has been traded on this market in total, including $16 in the last 24 hours, with $4K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President? resolve?
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy w
Where can I bet on Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.