One Nation leads at 68% across 8 outcomes, with $30K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place?
Current odds: One Nation 68%, Greens 26%, Labor 5%, Liberal–National 0%, Legalise Cannabis 0%, Animal Justice 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place?
One Nation is the market favorite at 68%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $30K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place?
$30K has been traded on this market in total, including $391 in the last 24 hours, with $78K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 29, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place resolve?
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference
Where can I bet on Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.