Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
As of today the market prices Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31 at 5% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? odds
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Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31??
The market currently prices this at 5% (5¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? is the market favorite at 5%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $203K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31??
$203K has been traded on this market in total, including $448 in the last 24 hours, with $31K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-li
Where can I bet on Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.