Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
As of today the market prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31 at 0% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? odds
Outcome
Chance
Price
Volume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31??
The market currently prices this at 0% (0¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? is the market favorite at 0%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $21.6M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31??
$21.6M has been traded on this market in total, including $343K in the last 24 hours, with $618K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has b
Where can I bet on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.