Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

As of today the market prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by... at 13% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
August 3113%13¢$3.4M
August 154%4¢$24K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...??
The market currently prices this at 13% (13¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 31 is the market favorite at 13%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $3.4M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...??
$3.4M has been traded on this market in total, including $284K in the last 24 hours, with $781K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has
Where can I bet on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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