No election before 2027 leads at 96% across 4 outcomes, with $116K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner?
Current odds: No election before 2027 96%, Waddani 3%, Justice and Welfare (UCID) 1%, Kulmiye 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner?
No election before 2027 is the market favorite at 96%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $116K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner?
$116K has been traded on this market in total, including $2 in the last 24 hours, with $45K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner resolve?
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie betwee
Where can I bet on Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.