As of today the market prices Satoshi's identity be proven by... at 2% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Satoshi's identity be proven by...??
The market currently prices this at 2% (2¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Satoshi's identity be proven by...?
December 31 is the market favorite at 2%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $2.0M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Satoshi's identity be proven by...??
$2.0M has been traded on this market in total, including $1 in the last 24 hours, with $19K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Satoshi's identity be proven by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Satoshi's identity be proven by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Where can I bet on Satoshi's identity be proven by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.