Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory

El-Sayed <5% leads at 81% across 11 outcomes, with $181K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
El-Sayed <5%81%81¢$12K
Other50%50¢
El-Sayed 5–10%10%10¢$48K
Stevens <5%9%9¢$14K
El-Sayed 10–15%1%1¢$49K
Stevens 5–10%1%1¢$7K
El-Sayed 25%+0%0¢$12K
El-Sayed 20–25%0%0¢$9K
El-Sayed 15–20%0%0¢$24K
Stevens 10–15%0%0¢$4K
Stevens 15%+0%0¢$976

Market details

Resolution rules

Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory?
Current odds: El-Sayed <5% 81%, Other 50%, El-Sayed 5–10% 10%, Stevens <5% 9%, El-Sayed 10–15% 1%, Stevens 5–10% 1%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory?
El-Sayed <5% is the market favorite at 81%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $181K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory?
$181K has been traded on this market in total, including $101K in the last 24 hours, with $139K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 4, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory resolve?
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this mark
Where can I bet on Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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