As of today the market prices Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey at 89% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Montana" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Montana has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Jersey Senate election.
This market will resolve to "New Jersey" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Jersey has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Montana Senate election.
If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey??
The market currently prices this at 89% (89¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?
Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey? is the market favorite at 89%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $977 through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey??
$977 has been traded on this market in total, with $41 of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey? resolve?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Montana" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Montana has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Jersey Senate election.
This market will resolve to "New Jersey" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Jersey has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Montana Senate election.
If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
Where can I bet on Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.