July 31 leads at 89% across 4 outcomes, with $412K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will Trump publicly insult someone on...??
Current odds: July 31 89%, July 29 87%, July 28 86%, July 30 86%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
July 31 is the market favorite at 89%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $412K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Trump publicly insult someone on...??
$412K has been traded on this market in total, including $8K in the last 24 hours, with $10K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagree
Where can I bet on Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.