November 11 leads at 94% across 25 outcomes, with $21K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
| Outcome | Chance | Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 11 | 94% | 94¢ | $406 |
| November 10 | 93% | 93¢ | $353 |
| November 13 | 92% | 92¢ | $190 |
| November 22 | 92% | 92¢ | $499 |
| November 24 | 92% | 92¢ | $167 |
| November 20 | 91% | 91¢ | $349 |
| November 9 | 89% | 89¢ | $1K |
| November 14 | 88% | 88¢ | $596 |
| November 26 | 88% | 88¢ | $2K |
| November 27 | 88% | 88¢ | $3K |
| November 12 | 87% | 87¢ | $21 |
| November 23 | 87% | 87¢ | $291 |
| November 18 | 86% | 86¢ | $421 |
| November 29 | 86% | 86¢ | $525 |
| November 15 | 83% | 83¢ | $73 |
10 more outcomes on the full market page.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available on the specified date (ET). Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
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