As of today the market prices Will Russia invade a NATO country by... at 7% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will Russia invade a NATO country by...??
The market currently prices this at 7% (7¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
December 31, 2026 is the market favorite at 7%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $5.4M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Russia invade a NATO country by...??
$5.4M has been traded on this market in total, including $867 in the last 24 hours, with $63K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2025. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be
Where can I bet on Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.