Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?

As of today the market prices Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by... at 83% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
September 3083%83¢$133K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47°39'45.5"N 36°15'13.1"E) by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Huliaipole will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vXBbP9idYDbbC21RA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...??
The market currently prices this at 83% (83¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30 is the market favorite at 83%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $1.0M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...??
$1.0M has been traded on this market in total, including $76K in the last 24 hours, with $11K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47°39'45.5"N 36°15'13.1"E) by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Huliaipole will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading mu
Where can I bet on Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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