Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
As of today the market prices Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027 at 8% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? odds
Outcome
Chance
Price
Volume
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027??
The market currently prices this at 8% (8¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? is the market favorite at 8%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $94K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027??
$94K has been traded on this market in total, including $30 in the last 24 hours, with $13K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more ind
Where can I bet on Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.