Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
As of today the market prices Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027 at 14% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? odds
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Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027??
The market currently prices this at 14% (14¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? is the market favorite at 14%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $100K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027??
$100K has been traded on this market in total, with $15K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or
Where can I bet on Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.