Pete Hegseth leads at 26% across 25 outcomes, with $5K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
| Outcome | Chance | Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 26% | 26¢ | $966 |
| Marco Rubio | 16% | 16¢ | $197 |
| Howard Lutnick | 16% | 16¢ | $650 |
| Kelly Loeffler | 14% | 14¢ | $221 |
| Linda McMahon | 10% | 10¢ | $210 |
| Lee Zeldin | 9% | 9¢ | $283 |
| Brooke Rollins | 8% | 8¢ | $232 |
| None before 2029 | 5% | 5¢ | $242 |
| Stephen Miller | 5% | 5¢ | $89 |
| Markwayne Mullin | 5% | 5¢ | $187 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 4% | 4¢ | $156 |
| Russell T. Vought | 4% | 4¢ | $156 |
| Jay Clayton | 4% | 4¢ | $156 |
| Doug Burgum | 3% | 3¢ | $177 |
| Keith Sonderling | 3% | 3¢ | $157 |
10 more outcomes on the full market page.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2029". An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President's Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed assumes a listed Cabinet position, they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a Cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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