John Brennan leads at 12% across 24 outcomes, with $678K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Who will be arrested before 2027??
Current odds: John Brennan 12%, James Comey 8%, Mahmoud Khalil 8%, James Clapper 7%, Susan Rice 6%, Candace Owens 6%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Who will be arrested before 2027?
John Brennan is the market favorite at 12%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $678K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Who will be arrested before 2027??
$678K has been traded on this market in total, including $4K in the last 24 hours, with $541K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Who will be arrested before 2027? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Who will be arrested before 2027? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following sc
Where can I bet on Who will be arrested before 2027?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.