Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff leads at 29% across 20 outcomes, with $537K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Steve Witkoff29%29¢$37K
Abbas Araghchi28%28¢$24K
Jared Kushner27%27¢$113K
J.D. Vance23%23¢$29K
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf20%20¢$21K
Majid Takht-Ravanchi18%18¢$17K
Nick Stewart18%18¢$13K
Kazem Gharibabadi16%16¢$20K
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi16%16¢$39K
Ishaq Dar16%16¢$24K
Mohammed bin Salman12%12¢$6K
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani11%11¢$40K
Rafael Grossi11%11¢$36K
Masoud Pezeshkian10%10¢$24K
Marco Rubio7%7¢$14K

5 more outcomes on the full market page.

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31??
Current odds: Steve Witkoff 29%, Abbas Araghchi 28%, Jared Kushner 27%, J.D. Vance 23%, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 20%, Majid Takht-Ravanchi 18%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve Witkoff is the market favorite at 29%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $537K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31??
$537K has been traded on this market in total, including $66K in the last 24 hours, with $278K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, pro
Where can I bet on Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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