This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President??
Current odds: Other 50%, Pete Buttigieg 35%, Gavin Newsom 20%, Andy Beshear 19%, Kamala Harris 13%, Ro Khanna 11%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
Other is the market favorite at 50%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $11K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President??
$11K has been traded on this market in total, including $22 in the last 24 hours, with $82K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President? resolve?
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file
Where can I bet on Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.