US imposes new sanctions on China by...?

As of today the market prices US imposes new sanctions on China by... at 11% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.

US imposes new sanctions on China by...? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
November 3011%11¢$22K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with China. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by China or Chinese citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes. Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with China will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against China will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify. The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct. The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on China within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US imposes new sanctions on China by...??
The market currently prices this at 11% (11¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will US imposes new sanctions on China by...?
November 30 is the market favorite at 11%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $56K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on US imposes new sanctions on China by...??
$56K has been traded on this market in total, including $2K in the last 24 hours, with $2K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does US imposes new sanctions on China by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does US imposes new sanctions on China by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with China. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by China or Chinese citizens; trade restrictions including export control
Where can I bet on US imposes new sanctions on China by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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