As of today the market prices Trump announces Canada tariff increase by... at 63% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
| Outcome | Chance | Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 63% | 63¢ | $11K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the White House, or any Cabinet member publicly and officially announces a tariff increase on Canada between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff increase which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the change goes into effect. The announced replacement of an existing tariff with a tariff of a higher rate will qualify, but the replacement of an existing tariff with a tariff of an equal or lower rate will not qualify. The announced imposition of a relevant new tariff at any rate will also qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by Donald Trump, through an official White House publication or communication, or by a White House official authorized to speak on behalf of Donald Trump or the White House, including members of the Cabinet. A global/blanket tariff on all imports which does not specifically name Canada will not qualify. Announcements, notices, publications, or actions issued solely by federal departments or agencies, including U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Department of Commerce, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, or the U.S. International Trade Commission, do not qualify on their own, unless they are announced by members of the Presidential Cabinet. This includes updates or amendments to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule, customs rulings, implementation guidance, changes to product coverage or exclusions, and antidumping or countervailing duty determinations. Such agency-level actions do not qualify merely because they implement or exercise authority delegated by Donald Trump or the White House. The relevant tariff change must itself be the subject of a qualifying announcement by Donald Trump or the White House within the market's time frame. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a tariff increase against Canada. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a relevant tariff increase. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a change in tariffs, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. An announcement by Donald Trump, the White House, or the Cabinet that the United States accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to a tariff increase qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates a qualifying tariff increase as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party. The following do not qualify as official announcements: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed by Donald Trump, the Cabinet, or the White House through a qualifying announcement; Statements by persons other than Donald Trump, the Cabinet, or White House officials authorized to speak on behalf of Donald Trump, the Cabinet, or the White House; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a policy; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a policy rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a tariff increase is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, members of the Cabinet, or the White House.
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