As of today the market prices NATO downs another Russian drone by... at 62% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for NATO downs another Russian drone by...??
The market currently prices this at 62% (62¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will NATO downs another Russian drone by...?
August 31 is the market favorite at 62%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $3K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on NATO downs another Russian drone by...??
$3K has been traded on this market in total, including $3K in the last 24 hours, with $2K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does NATO downs another Russian drone by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does NATO downs another Russian drone by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of info
Where can I bet on NATO downs another Russian drone by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.