Mississippi leads at 93% across 35 outcomes, with $127K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Closest Senate Race??
Current odds: Mississippi 93%, Alaska 7%, Montana 0%, Colorado 0%, New Mexico 0%, Texas 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Closest Senate Race?
Mississippi is the market favorite at 93%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $127K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Closest Senate Race??
$127K has been traded on this market in total, including $6K in the last 24 hours, with $396K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Closest Senate Race? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Closest Senate Race? resolve?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that
Where can I bet on Closest Senate Race?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.