Closest Governor's Race?

Kansas leads at 93% across 36 outcomes, with $61K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Closest Governor's Race? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Kansas93%93¢$9K
Tennessee6%6¢$911
Florida3%3¢$5K
Alaska2%2¢$864
Texas1%1¢$5K
Wisconsin1%1¢$3K
Ohio1%1¢$3K
Nevada1%1¢$10K
Oregon0%0¢$3K
New Mexico0%0¢$440
Arizona0%0¢$157
Colorado0%0¢$157
Minnesota0%0¢$271
Michigan0%0¢$645
Iowa0%0¢$496

21 more outcomes on the full market page.

Market details

Resolution rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Closest Governor's Race??
Current odds: Kansas 93%, Tennessee 6%, Florida 3%, Alaska 2%, Texas 1%, Wisconsin 1%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Closest Governor's Race?
Kansas is the market favorite at 93%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $61K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Closest Governor's Race??
$61K has been traded on this market in total, including $245 in the last 24 hours, with $173K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Closest Governor's Race? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Closest Governor's Race? resolve?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory
Where can I bet on Closest Governor's Race?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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