Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

Lula leads at 74% across 40 outcomes, with $70K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Lula74%74¢$26K
Candidate A50%50¢
Candidate B50%50¢
Candidate C50%50¢
Candidate D50%50¢
Candidate E50%50¢
Candidate F50%50¢
Candidate G50%50¢
Candidate H50%50¢
Candidate I50%50¢
Candidate J50%50¢
Candidate K50%50¢
Candidate L50%50¢
Candidate M50%50¢
Candidate N50%50¢

25 more outcomes on the full market page.

Market details

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner?
Current odds: Lula 74%, Candidate A 50%, Candidate B 50%, Candidate C 50%, Candidate D 50%, Candidate E 50%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner?
Lula is the market favorite at 74%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $70K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner?
$70K has been traded on this market in total, including $23K in the last 24 hours, with $179K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner resolve?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will r
Where can I bet on Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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