Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads at 64% across 17 outcomes, with $116.2M traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Brazil Presidential Election?
Current odds: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 64%, Flávio Bolsonaro 24%, Renan Santos 9%, Ronaldo Caiado 2%, Jair Bolsonaro 1%, Romeu Zema 1%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Brazil Presidential Election?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the market favorite at 64%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $116.2M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Brazil Presidential Election?
$116.2M has been traded on this market in total, including $164K in the last 24 hours, with $9.1M of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Brazil Presidential Election resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Brazil Presidential Election resolve?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Where can I bet on Brazil Presidential Election?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.