Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro leads at 52% across 19 outcomes, with $147.8M traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Brazil Presidential Election odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Flávio Bolsonaro52%52¢$10.3M
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva45%45¢$10.6M
Renan Santos2%$13.2M
Tarcisio de Freitas0%$14.1M
Jair Bolsonaro0%$6.8M
Fernando Haddad0%$7.5M
Michelle Bolsonaro0%$10.3M
Eduardo Bolsonaro0%$10.4M
Ratinho Júnior0%$10.4M
Ronaldo Caiado0%$7.4M
Romeu Zema0%$6.9M
Camilo Santana0%$5.5M
Geraldo Alckmin0%$6.2M
Eduardo Leite0%$8.0M
Aldo Rebelo0%$5.0M

4 more outcomes on the full market page.

Market details

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Brazil Presidential Election?
Current odds: Flávio Bolsonaro 52%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 45%, Renan Santos 2%, Tarcisio de Freitas 0%, Jair Bolsonaro 0%, Fernando Haddad 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Brazil Presidential Election?
Flávio Bolsonaro is the market favorite at 52%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $147.8M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Brazil Presidential Election?
$147.8M has been traded on this market in total, including $1.0M in the last 24 hours, with $17.0M of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Brazil Presidential Election resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Brazil Presidential Election resolve?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Where can I bet on Brazil Presidential Election?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

Related politics markets

All Politics markets on Polymarket →

Track every Polymarket market on the markets page, or see who is trading them on the leaderboard.