Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
As of today the market prices Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027 at 4% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? odds
Outcome
Chance
Price
Volume
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027??
The market currently prices this at 4% (4¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? is the market favorite at 4%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $150K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027??
$150K has been traded on this market in total, including $218 in the last 24 hours, with $13K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes",
Where can I bet on Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.