As of today the market prices Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027 at 15% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027??
The market currently prices this at 15% (15¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? is the market favorite at 15%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $538K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027??
$538K has been traded on this market in total, including $37K in the last 24 hours, with $31K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Where can I bet on Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.