Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD + PNL + UDMR leads at 19% across 32 outcomes, with $27K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
PSD + PNL + UDMR19%19¢$3K
PSD13%13¢$428
PSD + UDMR13%13¢$3K
PSD + AUR9%9¢$428
PNL + USR9%9¢$315
PNL + USR + UDMR7%7¢$474
PNL6%6¢$303
USR + UDMR6%6¢$530
PSD + PNL + USR6%6¢$182
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR6%6¢$464
PSD + USR + UDMR5%5¢$518
Other5%5¢$4K
PSD + PNL + AUR4%4¢$133
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR4%4¢$474
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR4%4¢$435

17 more outcomes on the full market page.

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Which coalition will form the next Romanian government??
Current odds: PSD + PNL + UDMR 19%, PSD 13%, PSD + UDMR 13%, PSD + AUR 9%, PNL + USR 9%, PNL + USR + UDMR 7%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
PSD + PNL + UDMR is the market favorite at 19%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $27K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Which coalition will form the next Romanian government??
$27K has been traded on this market in total, including $896 in the last 24 hours, with $148K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Which coalition will form the next Romanian government? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Which coalition will form the next Romanian government? resolve?
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). Al
Where can I bet on Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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