As of today the market prices Iceland EU referendum passes at 1% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Iceland EU referendum passes? odds
Outcome
Chance
Price
Volume
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Iceland EU referendum passes??
The market currently prices this at 1% (1¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Iceland EU referendum passes?
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? is the market favorite at 1%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $257K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Iceland EU referendum passes??
$257K has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $19K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Iceland EU referendum passes? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 30, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Iceland EU referendum passes? resolve?
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will
Where can I bet on Iceland EU referendum passes?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.