Thomas Chalifoux leads at 44% across 9 outcomes, with $47K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for FL-09 Republican Primary Winner?
Current odds: Thomas Chalifoux 44%, Ben Butler 37%, Dan Green 16%, Marcus Carter 1%, Justin Story 1%, Steve Rance 1%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in FL-09 Republican Primary Winner?
Thomas Chalifoux is the market favorite at 44%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $47K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on FL-09 Republican Primary Winner?
$47K has been traded on this market in total, including $6K in the last 24 hours, with $12K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does FL-09 Republican Primary Winner resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 18, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does FL-09 Republican Primary Winner resolve?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Where can I bet on FL-09 Republican Primary Winner?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.